Who will be the next superpower - India or China?
Sanjit Kumar, Asst. Professor at Magadh University
Answered May 18
It will be China first, followed by India later.
Let me remind you Marshall Plan which directly establish America, a superpower after World War II.
This project costs approx $13.3 billion and completed within 4 years.
The amount was invested to rebuild war-devastated European regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, make Europe prosperous.
For the United States, the Marshall Plan provided markets for American goods, created reliable trading partners, and supported the development of stable democratic governments in Western Europe.
Now, lets discuss to Belt and Road Initiative
China already did a revolution in cheap manufacturing, so they need bigger market for their product.
Hence, the countries from which one belt-one road is passing through, their market will be over-captured by Chinese goods.
How China's 'Belt and Road' Compares to the Marshall Plan?
Marshall Plan stated that European countries being aided should accept U.S. investment and import U.S. goods.
Over time, the U.S. dollar has become a tool for stability. China is also seeking to increase the international use of its currency.
The endpoint of OBOR is located in Europe. It shows that China wishes to intensify relations with traditional U.S. allies in Western Europe, which in turn undermines U.S. influence in the region.
India position between all these drama.
India is pushing its own North–South Transport Corridor
Japan is expected to join the Indian foray into the expansion of Iran’s Chabahar port and the adjoining special economic zone.
In eastern Sri Lanka, India & Japan are expected to jointly expand the strategically located Trincomalee port. They are also likely to join hands to develop Dawei port along the Thai-Myanmar border.
Presently, China has a strength of $10.87 trillion where as India has $3 trillion.
It is expected to overcome China by 2050.
China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10 percent. Those days are over.
China’s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7 percent, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond.
Sustaining the growth of China’s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.
And, then India will start playing her role. So, China will become superpower but will not be able to sustain for long.
Thanks for reading such a long post.
Aaron Manuel, former I Am Just Another Engineer
Updated May 28
I think India will be the next super power only if India is prevented from fudging data like how the Chinese did
WHY NOT CHINA ? :
1)China has a massive bubble economy =It is on the verge of collapsing .It has for years manipulated and inflated the numbers in various provinces .It’s actual growth rate is below 4%
2)Less exports will hurt the already fragile Chinese economy = Growth in many western countries are saturated .With the presidency of Trump ,the Americans are going to impose more import duties on Chinese products to help their economy and to create more jobs in America but these increased import duties will badly hurt the cheap export industries .Since Chinese depends on their exports and has a major share on their G.D.P ,declining exports will make the Chinese government to cut spending on social welfare
3)Aging population of China =Less workforce
Because of the one Child policy ,the growth rate and demands are going to go down ,With more and more people joining the above 70 camp ,the welfare spending and pension programes will dent a huge in the already dwindling reserves ***
4)China’s ghost cities
This is one of 1000s of many hastily built ghost cities but no one is occupying it .That means the real estate markets are already down and this is how the Spanish economy collapsed in 2007–2011 .It is just a matter of time
Katharina Sikorski, worked at India
China will not be a next superpower - there is no need to become one. China already is a global superpower. India is not.
While Indian media are full of “we will become superpower” and “India-China comparison” articles (and this has been a discourse well over a decade now), the Chinese media do not bother - India is not considered a competitor or an equal partner:
Pavan Addanki, Indian forever !!
Answered May 30
As an Indian, I am fascinated by China and what is stands for in the modern world today. I keep reading stories of comparisons of India’s and China’s economy. Many have predicted that both will become bitter rivals in the near future and will aim to outdo the other. Some say that China already has a head start over India as it opened it’s economy very early, while India was late. Many say that China’s economy is many years ahead and it will take years for India to catch up with it.
But that depends on whether India really wants to catch up with China.
No one can accurately predict the future and how conditions will be (except if you are Nostradamus). But as an Indian, I can tell you one thing. I really don't care if China stays ahead of India in the long run. As an Indian, I am focussed only on India and looking for ways and means to make my country a heaven. Our politicians are focussed on making India a better place for present and future generations. They work tirelessly day and night to ensure better governance and more opportunities and economic freedom for our citizens. What matters is not whether our neighbour is a super power or not. What matters is that the citizens of our country stay happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous.
Ashwin Kosaraju, Legal writer at Government of India (2016-present)
Answered May 18
Originally Answered: Who will be the next superpower, India or China?
Technically China is already a superpower, (permanent veto member of the UN) and India is becoming a super power, in terms of military strength, naval capacity, army reserves, nuclear warheads, GDP, and so on. It will take quite a few years before we can catch up.