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Quora网友热议:谁会成为下一个超级大国,印度还是中国?

Who will be the next superpower - India or China?0CjQuora中文网

谁会成为下一个超级大国,印度还是中国?0CjQuora中文网

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美版知乎quora网友讨论0CjQuora中文网

译文来源:Quora中文网 http://www.quora123.com/mil/2017-06-26/322.html0CjQuora中文网

Sanjit Kumar, Asst. Professor at Magadh University
Answered May 180CjQuora中文网

It will be China first, followed by India later.0CjQuora中文网

Let me remind you Marshall Plan which directly establish America, a superpower after World War II.0CjQuora中文网

This project costs approx $13.3 billion and completed within 4 years.
The amount was invested to rebuild war-devastated European regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, make Europe prosperous.0CjQuora中文网

中国会先崛起为超级大国,接着是印度0CjQuora中文网

提醒你马歇尔计划。二战后,马歇尔计划直接让美国成为了超级大国0CjQuora中文网

该计划耗资大约133亿美元,4年内完成0CjQuora中文网

这笔资金被用来重建被战争摧毁的欧洲地区,清除了贸易障碍,建立现代化工业,让欧洲繁荣了起来。0CjQuora中文网

For the United States, the Marshall Plan provided markets for American goods, created reliable trading partners, and supported the development of stable democratic governments in Western Europe.0CjQuora中文网

Now, lets discuss to Belt and Road Initiative0CjQuora中文网

China already did a revolution in cheap manufacturing, so they need bigger market for their product.
Hence, the countries from which one belt-one road is passing through, their market will be over-captured by Chinese goods.0CjQuora中文网

对美国来说,马歇尔计划为美国商品提供了市场,建立了可靠的贸易伙伴,支撑了西欧民主政府的稳定发展。0CjQuora中文网

现在来讨论一带一路计划。0CjQuora中文网

中国已经进行另一场低廉制造业的革命,需要为本国商品寻找更庞大的市场。0CjQuora中文网

因此,一带一路经过的国家,他们的市场会被中国商品占领。0CjQuora中文网

How China's 'Belt and Road' Compares to the Marshall Plan?0CjQuora中文网

Marshall Plan stated that European countries being aided should accept U.S. investment and import U.S. goods.0CjQuora中文网

Over time, the U.S. dollar has become a tool for stability. China is also seeking to increase the international use of its currency.
The endpoint of OBOR is located in Europe. It shows that China wishes to intensify relations with traditional U.S. allies in Western Europe, which in turn undermines U.S. influence in the region.0CjQuora中文网

中国“一带一路”计划和马歇尔计划有什么不同?0CjQuora中文网

马歇尔计划规定,接受援助的欧洲国家,应接受美国投资,并进口美国商品。0CjQuora中文网

久而久之,美元成为了稳定的工具。0CjQuora中文网

目前,中国也在寻求增加人民币的国际使用。0CjQuora中文网

一带一路计划的终点是欧洲。0CjQuora中文网

这表明,中国希望加强美国在西欧的传统盟友的关系0CjQuora中文网

India position between all these drama.0CjQuora中文网

印度在其中的位置。0CjQuora中文网

India is pushing its own North–South Transport Corridor0CjQuora中文网

印度正在追求自己的南北运输走廊。0CjQuora中文网

Japan is expected to join the Indian foray into the expansion of Iran’s Chabahar port and the adjoining special economic zone.0CjQuora中文网

In eastern Sri Lanka, India & Japan are expected to jointly expand the strategically located Trincomalee port. They are also likely to join hands to develop Dawei port along the Thai-Myanmar border.0CjQuora中文网

日本预计会与印度一道参与伊朗恰巴哈尔港及其毗邻经济特区的扩大计划。0CjQuora中文网

在东边的斯里兰卡,印度和日本有望联合扩大地处战略位置的亭可马里港口。0CjQuora中文网

Declining Power:0CjQuora中文网

Presently, China has a strength of $10.87 trillion where as India has $3 trillion.
It is expected to overcome China by 2050.0CjQuora中文网

China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10 percent. Those days are over.0CjQuora中文网

目前,中国经济规模为10.87万亿美元,而印度为3万亿美元0CjQuora中文网

不过有望在2050年前超过中国0CjQuora中文网

中国经济经历了一次迅速崛起,过去那些年头持续以两位数的速度增长。这样的好日子结束了。0CjQuora中文网

China’s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7 percent, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond.0CjQuora中文网

中国最近的经济增速不到7%,增速在未来10多年可能继续放缓。0CjQuora中文网

Sustaining the growth of China’s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.0CjQuora中文网

维持中国军事和经济发展会变得越来越困难,很快会开启一个缓慢而又不可恢复的衰退。0CjQuora中文网

And, then India will start playing her role. So, China will become superpower but will not be able to sustain for long.0CjQuora中文网

Thanks for reading such a long post.0CjQuora中文网

到时候就是轮到印度登台亮相了0CjQuora中文网

所以,中国会崛起为超级大国,不过不会长久。0CjQuora中文网

谢谢0CjQuora中文网


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Aaron Manuel, former I Am Just Another Engineer
Updated May 280CjQuora中文网

I think India will be the next super power only if India is prevented from fudging data like how the Chinese did0CjQuora中文网

WHY NOT CHINA ? :0CjQuora中文网

1)China has a massive bubble economy =It is on the verge of collapsing .It has for years manipulated and inflated the numbers in various provinces .It’s actual growth rate is below 4%0CjQuora中文网

我觉得,唯有印度不再像中国人那样杜撰数据,印度才会崛起为下一个超级大国0CjQuora中文网

为什么不是中国?0CjQuora中文网

1、中国经济存在巨大泡沫,正处在崩溃的边缘。0CjQuora中文网

不同省份虚报数据。真实经济增速不到4%0CjQuora中文网

2)Less exports will hurt the already fragile Chinese economy = Growth in many western countries are saturated .With the presidency of Trump ,the Americans are going to impose more import duties on Chinese products to help their economy and to create more jobs in America but these increased import duties will badly hurt the cheap export industries .Since Chinese depends on their exports and has a major share on their G.D.P ,declining exports will make the Chinese government to cut spending on social welfare0CjQuora中文网

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3)Aging population of China =Less workforce0CjQuora中文网

Because of the one Child policy ,the growth rate and demands are going to go down ,With more and more people joining the above 70 camp ,the welfare spending and pension programes will dent a huge in the already dwindling reserves ***0CjQuora中文网

3.不断老龄化的中国人口,意味着劳动力减少0CjQuora中文网

由于中国以前实行独生子女政策,所以经济增速会放缓,需求也会减少。0CjQuora中文网

随着70岁以上人口越来越多,养老开支会造成巨大负担。0CjQuora中文网

4)China’s ghost cities0CjQuora中文网

This is one of 1000s of many hastily built ghost cities but no one is occupying it .That means the real estate markets are already down and this is how the Spanish economy collapsed in 2007–2011 .It is just a matter of time0CjQuora中文网

4、中国的鬼城0CjQuora中文网

这是中国很多鬼城中的一座,没有人居住0CjQuora中文网

这意味着,房地产市场已经在走下坡路。0CjQuora中文网

2007-2011年,西班牙经济就是这样崩溃的。时间问题而已0CjQuora中文网

main-qimg-fcab7dadf092c07c495bf2d5c93f6a8d-c.jpg0CjQuora中文网

Katharina Sikorski, worked at India
Answered Wed0CjQuora中文网

China will not be a next superpower - there is no need to become one. China already is a global superpower. India is not.0CjQuora中文网

While Indian media are full of “we will become superpower” and “India-China comparison” articles (and this has been a discourse well over a decade now), the Chinese media do not bother - India is not considered a competitor or an equal partner:0CjQuora中文网

中国不会成为下一个超级大国的0CjQuora中文网

中国没有必要啊,已经是超级大国了啊,而印度不是0CjQuora中文网

印度媒体大篇幅报道“我们会成为超级大国”,大肆对比印度和中国。0CjQuora中文网

过去10多年一直津津乐道。0CjQuora中文网

而中国媒体压根就不在乎,印度并未被视为竞争者0CjQuora中文网


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Pavan Addanki, Indian forever !!
Answered May 300CjQuora中文网

As an Indian, I am fascinated by China and what is stands for in the modern world today. I keep reading stories of comparisons of India’s and China’s economy. Many have predicted that both will become bitter rivals in the near future and will aim to outdo the other. Some say that China already has a head start over India as it opened it’s economy very early, while India was late. Many say that China’s economy is many years ahead and it will take years for India to catch up with it.0CjQuora中文网

作为印度人,我对中国着迷了。中国代表当今现代世界。0CjQuora中文网

我一直读有关印度和中国经济比较的文章。0CjQuora中文网

许多人预测,两国在近期会成为竞争对手,预测两国都会致力于超过对方。0CjQuora中文网

有些人说,中国对印度有着先发优势,因为中国很早就开放了经济,而印度动作迟缓。0CjQuora中文网

许多人说,中国经济领先很多年,印度需要很多年来追赶。0CjQuora中文网

But that depends on whether India really wants to catch up with China.0CjQuora中文网

这取决于印度是否真的想要追赶中国0CjQuora中文网

No one can accurately predict the future and how conditions will be (except if you are Nostradamus). But as an Indian, I can tell you one thing. I really don't care if China stays ahead of India in the long run. As an Indian, I am focussed only on India and looking for ways and means to make my country a heaven. Our politicians are focussed on making India a better place for present and future generations. They work tirelessly day and night to ensure better governance and more opportunities and economic freedom for our citizens. What matters is not whether our neighbour is a super power or not. What matters is that the citizens of our country stay happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous.0CjQuora中文网

没有人能准确预测未来。0CjQuora中文网

作为印度人,我要说自己真的不在乎中国是否领先印度。0CjQuora中文网

作为印度人,我只关注印度,致力于寻找方法让国家成为天堂。0CjQuora中文网

我关注的是我们的政客是否为子孙后代建设美好的国家。0CjQuora中文网

是否孜孜不倦地工作,是否为公民创造更多机会和经济自由。0CjQuora中文网

邻国是否是超级大国,对我来说并不重要。0CjQuora中文网

重要的是我们公民幸福健康、和平繁荣。0CjQuora中文网


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Ashwin Kosaraju, Legal writer at Government of India (2016-present)
Answered May 18
Originally Answered: Who will be the next superpower, India or China?0CjQuora中文网

Technically China is already a superpower, (permanent veto member of the UN) and India is becoming a super power, in terms of military strength, naval capacity, army reserves, nuclear warheads, GDP, and so on. It will take quite a few years before we can catch up.0CjQuora中文网

从技术指标上来说,中国已经是超级大国,中国是拥有否决权的联合国常任理事国0CjQuora中文网

从军事力量、海军实力、预备役和核弹头、GDP等指标来看,印度正崛起为超级大国0CjQuora中文网

要赶上去,我们还要很多年0CjQuora中文网

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