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Quora:如果保持7-8%的GDP增速,印度经济需多少年才能和中国一样强大

如果保持7-8%的GDP增速,印度经济需要多少年才能和中国一样强大UoMQuora中文网

timg1.jpgUoMQuora中文网

美国quora网友讨论:UoMQuora中文网

译文来源:Quora中文网 http://www.quora123.com/life/2017-06-21/318.htmlUoMQuora中文网

Abu Saquib, works at Stryker
Answered Jun 11UoMQuora中文网

India need a lifetime to surpass china in term of various economical strength. i know most of the recent intellectual will not believe and i may attract some criticism here but what is true is true. I will try to make it short and crisp.UoMQuora中文网

Lets compare some very basic individual basic factor which actually matter such as land, people.UoMQuora中文网

India land area: 3.287 million km²UoMQuora中文网

China land are: 9.597 million km²UoMQuora中文网

Notice the area china have is more than 3 times, which India can never have until we invade some country and with present condition we cant.UoMQuora中文网

Arm Force:UoMQuora中文网

India: 1,325,000UoMQuora中文网

China: 2,335,000 (here also china is twice the size, hiring this much force is beyong india immagination)UoMQuora中文网

就经济实力而言,印度永远无法超过中国UoMQuora中文网

也许知识分子不大愿意相信,也许我会招来一些批评,然而事实就是事实。UoMQuora中文网

以下比较一些基本的数据:UoMQuora中文网

印度国土面积:328.7万平方公里UoMQuora中文网

中国国土面积:959.7万平方公里UoMQuora中文网

注意,中国国土面积是是印度的3倍。这点是比不过的,除非我们入侵其它国家。UoMQuora中文网

军队:UoMQuora中文网

印度军队:132万人UoMQuora中文网

中国军队:233.5万人UoMQuora中文网

中国军队规模也是印度军队的两倍,养这么多军队也是印度无法想象的。UoMQuora中文网

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GDP:UoMQuora中文网

notice in 1960 China was only 2 times the total Indian GDP but in 2015 China surpass 6 times the total GDP.UoMQuora中文网

GDP:UoMQuora中文网

1960年,中国GDP只是印度GDP的两倍,然而到了2015年,中国GDP已经是印度GDP的6倍了UoMQuora中文网

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And the last is GNI (Atlas method).UoMQuora中文网

(The Atlas method is a method used by the World Bank to estimate the size of economies in terms of gross national income (GNI) in U.S. dollars. ... The resulting GNI in U.S. dollars is divided by the country's midyear population to obtain the GNI per capita)UoMQuora中文网

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Source: GNI, Atlas method (current US$)UoMQuora中文网

I hope this will correct a lot of peoples misconception about India and China.UoMQuora中文网

And it is not bad and bot good also. India is India and China is China and we both are growing for our-self not for competition. And if someone want to see where USA is in all this please refer to below GDP graph.UoMQuora中文网

希望以上能纠正人们对印度和中国的误解。UoMQuora中文网

印度是印度,中国是中国,我们都是为了自己发展,不是为了竞争。UoMQuora中文网

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Ling Guo, lives in China
Updated Jun 8UoMQuora中文网

Do a simple math.UoMQuora中文网

The GDP of China — $11,218,281 millionUoMQuora中文网

The GDP of India — $2,256,397 millionUoMQuora中文网

Say India grows by 8% per year, China grows by 5%, with anything else remaining the same:UoMQuora中文网

2256397
∗(1+0.08)x=11218281∗(1+0.05)xUoMQuora中文网

x=57UoMQuora中文网

It takes 57 years in this case.UoMQuora中文网

做一个简单的算术UoMQuora中文网

中国GDP为11.218281万亿美元UoMQuora中文网

印度GDP为2.256397万亿美元UoMQuora中文网

假如印度每年经济增速为8%,中国保持5%,其他不变UoMQuora中文网

2256397
∗(1+0.08)x=11218281∗(1+0.05)xUoMQuora中文网

x=57UoMQuora中文网

这种情况下,印度赶上中国要57年。UoMQuora中文网

Say India grows by 8% per year, China doesn’t grow, with anything else remaining the same:UoMQuora中文网

2256397
∗(1+0.08)x=11218281UoMQuora中文网

x=20UoMQuora中文网

It takes 20 years if China stops growing from now.UoMQuora中文网

But the economy is much more complicated and these results don’t really mean anything.UoMQuora中文网

假如印度GDP增速8%,而中国不发展,UoMQuora中文网

2256397
∗(1+0.08)x=11218281UoMQuora中文网

x=20UoMQuora中文网

那么印度赶上中国需要20年。UoMQuora中文网

然而经济是相当复杂的,这些结果没有任何意义。UoMQuora中文网


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Arun Bhatia, former IT
Answered Jun 6UoMQuora中文网

China is much bigger, better than India. All Indians want to to emulate the Chinese success story. I travelled to China for a visit. Many parts just like India but cleaner, neater and all believing in their government to take them out of poverty.UoMQuora中文网

The best thing for both countries - keep competing, keep chalenging keep feeling the other is better !UoMQuora中文网

Both will progress then.UoMQuora中文网

中国大多了,发达多了UoMQuora中文网

每一个印度人都希望模仿中国成功故事UoMQuora中文网

我去过中国,很多地方像印度,就是更干净,更整洁。UoMQuora中文网

当地人都相信政府会让他们脱贫。UoMQuora中文网

中印最好保持竞争态势,对另一方往好处里想UoMQuora中文网

两国都会进步的。UoMQuora中文网


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Michael Lee, BSCS
Answered Jun 1UoMQuora中文网

at 8 percent india needs 21 years to catch up to where china is right now.UoMQuora中文网

按照8%的发展速度,印度需要21年才能赶上中国现在的经济。UoMQuora中文网


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Blair Jos
Answered Jun 1UoMQuora中文网

China took almost all globalization benefits over the past 30 years.
India missed it.
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Now all Western countries implement "their countries first" policy to oppose the continuation of globalization.
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India needs 95% domestic demands to drive its growth rate, it is impossible for India to sustain the growth rate based on only its domestic demands (assume Indian DGP growth rate is true).
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While China is still dominating the low end markets, it is changing its low end market into median and high end markets.
Chinese GDP growth rate has reached bottom, you will see another 30 years GDP growth rate of 7-8% growth rate.
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India growth rate last quarter only reached 6.1%, far below Chinese 6.9%.UoMQuora中文网

中国几乎享受了过去30年全球化的各种好处UoMQuora中文网

而印度错过了这个大好机会。UoMQuora中文网

如今,所有西方国家都执行“本国第一”的政策,反对全球化的进程。UoMQuora中文网

为了保持增速,印度国内需求的拉动必须占95%UoMQuora中文网

如果仅仅依靠国内需求,印度是不可能维持目前的增速的。UoMQuora中文网

仍然主宰低端市场的同时,中国正从低端市场向中高端市场进军。UoMQuora中文网

中国GDP增速已经探底了,未来30年你会再次看到7-8%的经济增速。UoMQuora中文网

上一季度,印度GDP增速只达到了6.1%,远低于中国的6.9%UoMQuora中文网

Chinese economic success has made all developing countries, including India, have a great confidence to achieve their own economic success.
However, do they have Chinese hard working attitudes, IQ, culture, social and political system as well as the international environments to grow?
I doubt they have.
Autocratic system is the best system to drive economic growth rate, when it is developed, naturally it would become full democratic system in one way or another.
Developing countries with the Western style Democratic system will make them poor forever.
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No chance for India, India GDP growth rate has not reached its bottom as Indian GDP growth rate keeps dropping over the past 4 quarters.
The so called India fast growth rate was from the change of the GDP calculation method, it is now even dropping with the new calculation method, as the reality on the ground are the same as they used to be, unless India keeps changing the calculation method again.UoMQuora中文网

中国经济成功给包括印度在内的各发展中国家带来了信心,这些国家对实现本国经济成功可是信心满满。UoMQuora中文网

然而,他们有中国人的勤劳刻苦吗,他们有中国人的智商吗,他们有中国的社会和政治制度吗,他们有相应的国际环境吗?UoMQuora中文网

对此,我表示怀疑。UoMQuora中文网

专制最适合推动经济发展的。一旦发达了,自然会以某种方式民主。UoMQuora中文网

受困于西式民主的发展中国家会永远贫穷下去的。UoMQuora中文网

印度没机会了。UoMQuora中文网

所谓的印度快速发展,无非来自于GDP算法的改变而已。UoMQuora中文网

用了新的计算方法,其实印度经济增速在下降啊。UoMQuora中文网

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